Record
The calls this archive made, and how they came out
The essays ask institutions to keep the evidence that could contradict them. Here the archive keeps its own: every testable call it made, the misses before the hits, and the calls of essays it has since withdrawn.
21 calls: 1 wrong, 5 right, 1 overdue, 14 open.
Wrong · 1
Calls the evidence went against.
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Wrong
Palantir's business model depends on prediction; when prediction collapses, so does their value proposition
From Is Palantir Obsolete?, since withdrawn from the archive, February 17, 2025.
Evidence, as recorded on May 15, 2026: Palantir expanded government/military AI contracts through 2025-2026; stock and business value grew; former employees condemned Trump administration work — still relevant
Right · 5
Calls the evidence bore out.
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Right
AGI discourse will remain primarily ethnographic (about who gets to define it) rather than technical
From How I Think About AGI, March 27, 2025.
Evidence, as recorded on May 15, 2026: Dominated by “what is AGI?” debates (Huang, Marcus, OpenAI/Microsoft dispute); Fortune: “no one can agree on what that means”
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Right
“Ethical AI” teams will continue to be defunded when they conflict with business interests
From Is “Ethical AI” Just Budget Cuts?, since withdrawn from the archive, March 21, 2025.
Evidence, as recorded on May 15, 2026: OpenAI removed “safely” from mission (Feb 2026); corporate ethics teams sidelined; academic ethics centers funded but industry safety commitments walked back
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Right
The moral panic about disability identity will intensify as diagnosis rates rise
From "Kids These Days Just Want to Be Disabled", March 15, 2025.
Evidence, as recorded on May 15, 2026: UK Labour welfare reforms targeting disability benefits; FT: “moral panic about the welfare system”; The Conversation: “Labour says benefit reforms are a ‘moral mission’ – it looks more like moral panic”
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Right
AI will accelerate financialization of medicine rather than improve care
From Algorithmic Austerity: How AI facilitates the Financialization of Medicine, February 13, 2025.
Evidence, as recorded on May 15, 2026: Medicare launched AI prior authorization pilot (WISeR); AMA: “AI is leading to more prior authorization denials”; health systems use AI to curb costs; CMS screening AI program started Jan 2026
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Right
Microplastics will generate a wellness-industry response focused on individual detox rather than structural regulation
From The Coming Plastobiome Delusion, February 4, 2025.
Evidence, as recorded on May 15, 2026: “10 Ways to Reduce Microplastic Exposure” (US News); “Clinical guide: microplastic detox” (MDLinx); WaPo on microplastic treatments; “Detox 2026: What Big Wellness Wants You to Believe” — individual detox market booming, no structural regulation
Overdue · 1
Calls past the date they were due to be judged, and not yet scored.
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Overdue
AI-Driven Time-Series Modeling Will Reshape Political Campaigns
From How the 2024 Election Will Be Won, September 28, 2024. The call is the essay's subtitle; the tracker recorded no wording for it.
Due to be judged by November 5, 2024. Not yet scored.
Open · 14
Calls still running. None was made with a stated test or deadline, so none can be scored yet, and none has been given a deadline after the fact.
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Open
The “user” as a concept is being retired from web architecture; platforms will optimize for extraction without a user subject
From The Post-User Web, January 8, 2026.
No test or deadline was set when the call was made.
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Open
Credentialing will continue to function as gatekeeping rather than quality control
From They Believed Her and Owed Her Nothing, December 28, 2025.
No test or deadline was set when the call was made.
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Open
Institutions will continue to draw correct conclusions without acting on them
From Prediction Is Rule-Making, November 14, 2025.
No test or deadline was set when the call was made.
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Open
No AI company can be ethically led within the current incentive structure; the role itself is contradictory
From The Ethical AI CEO Is a Contradiction, since withdrawn from the archive, September 13, 2025.
No test or deadline was set when the call was made.
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Open
Claims of technological inevitability will continue to be proven contingent
From How I Learned to Laugh at 'Inevitable', September 12, 2025.
No test or deadline was set when the call was made.
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Open
Markets structurally disincentivize curative treatments in favor of chronic management
From The Stock Market Hates a Cure, July 16, 2025.
No test or deadline was set when the call was made.
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Open
Systems that build in refusal points will outperform those that don't
From Refusability is the Future of Design, April 2, 2025.
No test or deadline was set when the call was made.
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Open
Crisis will continue to be structurally integrated into capitalism rather than resolved
From Collapse Capitalism: The Structural Integration of Crisis, February 24, 2025.
No test or deadline was set when the call was made.
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Open
Disaffection will be commodified and repackaged rather than addressed at root
From Disaffection is a Raw Material, October 26, 2024.
No test or deadline was set when the call was made.
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Open
Jain complicity in Hindutva will continue as long as caste-elite interests align with Hindu nationalism
From Jain Amnesia: Complicity in Hindutva and the Fantasy of Protection, August 15, 2024.
No test or deadline was set when the call was made.
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Open
State-level universal pilots will lead to national politics following
From Deservingness Is a Sorting Machine, July 1, 2025.
No test or deadline was set when the call was made.
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Open
Institutions will always find new proxy variables for exclusion when old ones are blocked
From Universality Disincentivizes Surveillance, June 2, 2025.
No test or deadline was set when the call was made.
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Open
Fraud prevention will continue as cover for budget cuts, excluding the vulnerable while enabling genuine abusers
From The Spectacle of Fraud, March 29, 2025.
No test or deadline was set when the call was made.
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Open
Voluntary ethical companies (accepting “Constraint Discount”) will be out-competed unless constraints are universal
From Show Me What You Can No Longer Do, December 17, 2025.
No test or deadline was set when the call was made.
How the record is kept
Each call is quoted as the archive's prediction tracker recorded it, and each verdict and its evidence as the tracker's last review left them, on May 15, 2026. Nothing is reworded after the result comes in. Calls from withdrawn essays stay, because a record that loses its misses when the essay goes is not a record.
The tracker also held entries that were values, diagnoses or design proposals rather than predictions, and a few with no claim written down. They are not scored here, since nothing could prove them wrong.